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  • sledge_hammer
    06-25 04:03 PM
    You are wrong my friend. Not all rich people pay cash for their homes. Read this - Celebrity Foreclosures - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/02/gotti-canseco-dykstra-foreclosures-business-celebrities.html)

    And who was rich first and does not consider his house as an investment!




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  • SunnySurya
    08-05 02:00 PM
    Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.

    Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.

    On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD

    SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:


    Oh my gosh..This much argument. I do not know the PD porting is law or rule. If it is law, one can not file suit against the amended law. But one can request the law maker to change. If it is a rule, one may do that. But it does not have any merit. It is waste of time.

    PD porting, in theory, is very genuine. (may be not-genuine in many cases; just to cut-short the line or line jump by creating a EB2 job) So, one cannot challagne that. Here is why. A cook may have a PD 2001 in EB3. He has right to study PhD and apply in EB1 catagory, by poring PD. There is no violation of ehics here.




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  • unitednations
    08-03 08:18 PM
    huh? another shocker (atleast for me): what is the issue with using AC21 to go from a consulting job to a permanent one? As long as title and duties say the same. If I am consulting at a client site, cant I use AC21 to join them fulltime 6 months down the line? My duties etc remain exactly the same.


    Remember when I was mentioning ability to pay and what happened in 2004.

    Some people with approved 140's from 2002 and 2003 had the reopened by uscis and they started applying current day memorandum and current day adjudication standards to cases which were already approved. A number of people had their 140's revoked by uscis stating they were approved in error.

    Chennai consulate and California service center both treat the staff augmentation companies as not the employer in "common law" context. That is; you are not in their control. that is why they always ask for letter/contract from the end client.

    California service center was just starting to treat the 140's in the same manner before they stopped doing 140's. They were denying/revoking 140's because a company did not have a full time and permanent job for them.

    Now;texas and nebraska do not do this. But with all of these legal wranglings; complaints by people; h-1b denials, consulate 221g's, etc.; eventually this could have an impact.

    Let's say you are working at Client A. You work for B. You don't like their ratio; so you move to employer C, who gives you a better ratio but you still work at client A. Then you hop over to employer D because they process labors in a fast state or it is a substitute labor. Now; you file 140/485 and after six months you decide to join client A using AC21. Now; how would you justify this. From common law point of view; B, C and D are not your employer even though D is the one filing greencard for you. We'll see as time goes on when people start leaving en masse and uscis starts picking up and detecting these patterns as to what type of impact it will have.




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  • BharatPremi
    03-28 05:50 PM
    Bharatpremi - Thanks for yr earlier reply and for yr optimistic EB3 (I) predictions in other threads.
    --------
    here are the details about housing demand ..now that the bubble has burst with huge inventory still remaining ..it is difficult to see from where the (genuine) demand will come ..speculators and flippers are badly burnt ..This is from MSN money.
    --
    this country's median income of roughly $49,000 can hardly be expected to service the debt of the median home price of $234,000, up from approximately $160,000 in 2000.

    Let's do a little math. Forty-nine thousand dollars in yearly income leaves approximately $35,000 in after-tax dollars. Call it $3,000 a month. A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would cost approximately $1,500 per month. That leaves only $1,500 a month for a family to pay for everything else! (Of course, in many communities the math is even less tenable.) This is the crux of the problem, and the government cannot fix it.

    Housing prices, thanks to the bubble and inflation, have risen well past the point where the median (or typical middle-class) family can afford them. Either income must rise -- which seems unlikely on an inflated-adjusted basis -- or home prices must come down.

    This whole thing is a set conspiracy for the benefit of 5% . My biggest surprise is that nobody is asking a simple question: Why the hell traditional mortgages are designed for 30 years/40 years? Why not for 5 years and at the most for 10 years? If you might have seen your county record, you will see land cost is always a bear cheap against your total purchase price. Now you also know that construction cost is not that great too.

    If you would have built that home by your self , you could built it at very reasonable price. So what is driving us nuts is the addition of "passive" amount which we call "market".. Now this "passive" insertion is designed for "Government" + " Lenders" + " realtors"--- and for their benefit you throughout your damn life end up paying mortgage. As long as the concept of "investment" and "profiteering" will be associated with housing you will see thousands of families get shattered for the benefit of some hundreds of families.

    And you are seeing the effect. Government is out to save Bear Stern's as* but is not yet out to save millions of families.:mad:

    Example: $ 500,000/- purchase price (3000 sq ft single family home)
    Land cost: 80,000/- ( defined by county - assessment record)
    Construction cost: 1,40,000/- (If you do home work you can easily
    derive current construction cost)
    Let's say you give the order to somebody to construct: Add his 25%
    profit which is reasonable)

    The real cost is 255000. If a man with median income of $ 49,000/- wants to buy a home he will still be able to do that with all happiness if government enforces some limit say for an example 5-10% "passive" margin on top of this actual current cost for these sharks. But now in today's world you would be paying this large "passive" difference so your lender, realtor and government become fat and you end up working your ass of for 30 years to pay it off.

    The beauty is that everybody is doing that and government has authorized it so it is legitimate. Basically this whole damn system corner the money to 5% people and I am not ready to tell that a capitalism. "Dacoits rule the city of theives."



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  • redcard
    12-19 12:22 AM
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.

    I am surprised that you have been brainwashed by your religious leaders into believing what you wrote... just to refresh your memory,,
    When Islam arrived in India, the Hindus welcomed the Muslims with open arms as brothers. In return Islam destroyed the entire Hindu civilization...over the years the followers of Islam killed over 100 million people. It has been documented that the largest genocide the world has ever witnessed was killing of over 100 millions hindus in the Hindukush region by Muslims. The muslim leaders �educated� Muslim men to rape Hindu women as this was a method to destroy the Hindu race. Infact raping Hindu women was part of what being a Muslim man was about! Temples were razed to the ground and villages were burned. Those who refused to convert to islam were either killed or raped if you were women. The reality is that islamic religious leaders wanted to destroy every religion from earth so that Islam the youngest religion in the world could prevail.Even today that is the aim of the islamic fanatics and cause of all the problems. Even in the recent past in this decade only.. the Taliban destroyed the Budha Statues in Afghanistan.. and people call this religion a religion of peace..., its a joke.

    Islam is a religion which does not even preach to treat your own wife with respect. Its a religion which teaches men to kill their wife incase they don't obey them. Even today women are treated like doormats and "things" of pleasure for men in this religion.

    Lets face it the fact is that Muslim community is now being cornered by the western world is because the violent front of the religion has become the face of Islam and the moderate religions and community in the world cannot take this anymore. That is the reason why the Muslim are suffering. Its like saying in Hinduism.. the Karma is catching up with you.

    Its sad that even today in India the muslim which is a minority community is holding the whole country back.. they continue to fight the hindus where ever they can and whenever they can in places like Kashmir and unfortunately the Indian leaders and Hindu community continue to follow the principle of Non Violence which is not working.

    The islam religion is not a religion of unification on the contrary the religion teaches the Muslims that non-Muslims are infidels and that they should be killed and that is the reason why Isalm was instituted through coercion and violence. So lets face Islam is everything but a religion of peace.. and yes I think the world is now waking up the violence of this religion and sooner or later the Islamic religion has to evolve into a moderate religion, failing which it will die its own death..




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  • jung.lee
    04-09 12:51 PM
    Being an energy saving geek, I also recommend buying something with a large south facing roof (for lots of solar panels).

    Mark, I looked at the pics of the roof of your house. Nice work. Being a little bit of an energy saving geek myself, and this being Earth Day month and all, do you mind sharing some details on the solar panel roofing project?


    What brand of panels did you purchase and where?
    What is the price per square foot raw material, and with installation? Did you use a specialized installer, or a regular roofing contractor?
    What is the total area (ft-squared or m-squared) of the panels?
    What is the energy generated by the panels (I am guessing something in kWH/m-squared)?


    Last but not the least, how the heck did you get snow to stay away from the panels, when it is clearly visible on other roofing tiles at the edges of the roof:)? Is this a property of the panels' surface (smoothness of surface - like glass)?

    Also, hate to dump out here - how about some details the geo-thermal system? (I admit that I know nothing about them, expect for the basic underground heat exchange concept. I did not know that a compact residential system was available).

    Thanks for sharing!



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  • pbojja
    09-26 12:20 PM
    I beleive there will be no plans for legal immigrants by either candidates . If there will be any it will be for illegal immigratns because they are not paying taxes . I wish there was a rule not to pay any taxes till we the GC , that will change a lot doesnt it .

    I think if Obama wins most of us here will qualify for higher taxes , I feel we already pay more with out a permenant status in this country . Any way taxes may not be a factor for choosing a president and I have no problem if Obama wins.

    I dont understand why the immigrant opponets dont get the following .
    >> If I get my GC I buy home which means more money will stay in this country.
    >> If I get my GC , chances of me going back home and vacating american job odds are more .

    I think people always combine H1B with GC , or illegals with GC ..which makes it difficult for average american to understand our issues .




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  • CreatedToday
    01-06 05:55 PM
    Checkpoints? What do you expect Israel to do?

    Given a chance, they strap a bomb in their waist and rush to Israel!!

    India has legitimate reason to attack pakistan ...

    But Palestine is not like that. They are fighting for their right. Have you ever seen or heard about how people in palestin live their day to day life? How many check points they have to cross before crossing a mile? How much time they spend waiting on each crossing?

    ...
    We have seen Isreals brutal aggression year after year. Killing civilians and kids year after year. I don't know how much more blood they need??



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  • gapala
    12-17 04:47 PM
    Nobody in good conscience support terrorism, no Indian, no Pakistani. I have many good friends from Pakistan and I do support Pakistan in its strive towards better and peaceful future. Does that make me a terrorist ?

    Don't bring ISMs into the conversation. You started this post to trash specific community and you are getting there. Stop being a A-hole and get a life.

    It feels good to read your posts but my friend, you are far off from reality. The folks who hijacked that religion and perverted belief that entire planet earth should be under sharia is the problem. I am not saying that all apples are bad.

    Do you know what is happening in UK and other parts of Europe? Go search in google videos There are several investigative reports from main stream media are posted out there to educate people like you.

    Now, you may choose to ignore the threat to humanity but that does not mean its not real.

    I too have good friends from different parts of world but they themself believe that its a dangerous world. Ask your friends that you quoted in your post, they will tell you.




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  • prioritydate
    01-10 11:29 AM
    Exactly!! Just like the Europeans had a right to defend themselves against the Native Americans.

    Fortunately for them, they did their ethnic cleansing before the mass media and enlightenment. God bless them for it. Now we can come from far and distant places to get permanent residency into this land.

    Unfortunately for the Israelis, like Benny Morris recently said, they couldn't kill all their Barbarians (the Arabs/Palestinians) in the 1940s. Had they completely ethnically cleansed Israel/Palestine of the Arabs back then, we wouldn't have this Israel/Arab problem today.


    If you talk about history, then we should go back to the days where Muslims invaded and killed innocent people in millions. If you kill some people then it is called jihad, but if someone kill you, then it is barbarism. Palestinians and rest of Muslims should learn to live and let live people. No body wants someone's crazy ideas. Got my point? Further, don't listen to your mullahs!



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  • pointlesswait
    01-06 01:28 PM
    violence is a two way sword..

    its not that hamas is doing gandhigiri there.. even though they were elected to rule palestine..those morons instead of providing good governence and hope to their ppl..have resorted to some mindless/aimless bombing of Israel.

    i care that kids are getting killed... but dont you care then when one of ur jihadi blows himself up..and many innocent get killed.
    I support that palestinians be given their right to self rule.. but they should learn to live and let live..

    so you are saying.. u can kill ppl in the name of god..and when someone responds..u squirm like a toad?

    grow up.. kid..


    Why do you want to end this discussion? Are you scared of speaking the truth or you don't care the killing of innocent school kids?




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  • Macaca
    05-20 06:06 PM
    Are Young College Grads Too Lazy to Work? (http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/19/are-young-college-grads-too-lazy-to-work/) By CATHERINE RAMPELL | New York Times

    I�ve received a lot of passionate (and angry) e-mails in response to my article (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/19/business/economy/19grads.html) today on the employment fate of recent college graduates. While the messages from young people almost uniformly expressed frustration at the job market they�d been thrust into, some of the e-mails from older readers argued that today�s college graduates were having trouble finding jobs because they hadn�t worked hard enough. For example, a reader named Norman Berger asks why graduates wonder why they prove worthless to a potential employer when they follow this approach:

    Take �soft� subjects, be lulled into complacency by grade inflation, have teachers who are tenured and don�t care how rigorously you think, start partying on Wednesdays, take 3-4 courses per semester/quarter and spend 5-6 years to graduate, study six hours per week (at best), believe in all of the liberal causes which produce soft qualative rather than quantative thinking, learn to hate the capitalistic system, don�t care when you get out of school that you�ll still be living at home, etc �

    As we�ve written before, today�s college students do indeed spend less time studying (http://papers.nber.org/papers/w15954), and get higher grades, than their counterparts from a generation ago did. And most young graduates are leaning heavily on their family for financial support. More than one in five are living with their parents or other relatives, and many are getting help from family members for other expenses, as shown in the chart below.

    But today�s college students also have spent a lot of time working, well before graduation.

    Sixty percent of the graduates of the college classes of 2006 through 2010 said they held a part-time job while enrolled in school, not including jobs held during the summer or between semesters. Another 23 percent said they were working full time or both full and part time during school, according to a new study released by Rutgers.

    For 44 percent of students, work or personal savings helped finance their schooling.

    �Based on the finding that young people overwhelmingly were working in college, I don�t think this is a generation of slackers,� said Carl Van Horn, a labor economist at Rutgers and co-author of the study. �This image of the kid who goes off and skis in Colorado, I don�t think that�s the correct image. Today�s young people are very focused on trying to work hard and to get ahead.�


    Tuition Skyrockets -- While Learning Plummets (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/05/20/tuition_skyrockets_--_while_learning_plummets_109937.html) By Rich Lowry | New York Post
    Where are the jobs? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/business/unemployment-where-are-the-jobs/) Washington Post
    The Rise of the Five-Year Four-Year Degree (http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/20/the-rise-of-the-five-year-four-year-degree/) By Judith Scott-Clayton | Economix
    Are Talent Acquisitions a Sign of a New Bubble? (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/are-talent-acquisitions-a-sign-of-a-new-bubble/) By MIGUEL HELFT | New York Times



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  • bfadlia
    01-07 04:09 PM
    Thank you so much for the information although I think I never asked about the trinity or salvation or the return of the messiah (only said the yearning for that return should not be used to justify one people displacing another and taking their land).. I respect jesus.. all muslims do.. let god deal with us for not accepting jesus as his son and just please stop using him as a scarecrow and leave Mohamed alone too..
    peace.

    these are the comments i got for this post

    Getting into wrong area!
    you moron

    did u even read the posts.. I'm asking people to get out of that area.. to stop mixing religion with politics




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  • abracadabra102
    01-06 05:36 PM
    If we take out the religion from equation, Israelis and Palestines are one people. They belong to same genetic pool and lived together for hundreds of years. In fact it was an Arab Calipha who allowed jews back into israel/palestine area after jews were ejected from this area by Romans. It is a pity they ended up like Indians and Pakistanis (same genetic pool again). Having said that, it is Arab countries that screwed Palestine people after 1948 war with Israel. Israel was willing for a compromise and creation of Palestine.

    Taken from wikipedia:

    "Following the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the 1949 Armistice Agreements between Israel and neighboring Arab states eliminated Palestine as a distinct territory. With the establishment of Israel, the remaining lands were divided amongst Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The Arab governments at this point refused to set up a State of Palestine."

    complete article with several cross references here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine).

    Israel is doing what is required of a nation when attacked. It is sad that innocent children are dying. But I do not see any better options left open for Israel. Offcourse they could have done what India does - whine for a few months, complain to every Tom, Dick and Harry and then shut up. But not every one is spineless.



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  • logiclife
    06-01 06:09 PM
    The culture of rant, the tendency of being angry at all times has landed success to many broadcast journalists, authors and politicians.

    On the right:

    Rush Limbaugh.
    Bill O Reilly.
    Sean Hannity.
    Ann Coulter(not a journalist but close).

    On the left:

    Howard Dean.
    Al Sharpton.

    It seems that the more angry you are, the more successful you are. What surprises me is the Republicans control the congress and the white house and still, Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, Lou Dobbs etc. are angry at all times. They are angry if Bill Clinton is President. They are angry if George Bush is president. They are angry when Democrats win, they are angry even if republicans win. They are just angry and they want everyone else to be angry. Probably, there is a secret key to ratings success written somewhere in a secret book in a secret library that these guys have read. And that books says "Make thy audience mad at someone and thou shalt see success in thy Neilson ratings".




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  • NKR
    03-25 02:32 PM
    I completely agree that buying a house is a long term move. But I disagree with some of the points:

    1. Does rent always go up? No, my rent did not go up at all during the real estate boom as the number of ppl renting was low. Recently my rent has gone up only $75 pm. (love rent control!!!) So in 5 years, my monthly rent has gone up a total of $125 per month
    2. I hear about tax rebate for homeowners. But what about property tax?
    3. What about mortgage insurance payments?

    It is a misconception that 5-10 years is the cycle for real estate.

    Here's how in a sane real estate market the cycle should work:

    No population influx in your area or there is no exodus from your area:
    Your real estate ownership should be 25 years because that's when the next generation is ready to buy houses.

    However, in places like SF Bay Area/new York/Boston where there is continuous influx of young working ppl this cycle can be reduced to 15-20 years.

    Over the last few years, nobody thought of longevity required to make money in RE. Now that it is tanking ppl are talking about 5-10 years. Unless you are buying in a booming place, your ownership has to be 15+ years to turn a real profit.

    This is purely the financial aspect of ownership. If you have a family I think its really nice to have a house but you don't have to really take on the liability. You can rent the same house for much less. But if you are clear in your mind that no matter what I am going to live in XYZ town/city for the next 20 years, go for it.

    As a sidenote for Indians. We all have either aging or soon to start aging parents. The way I see it, caring for aging parents is a social debt that we must pay back. This will need me to go back to India. Therefore, if you feel you need to care for your parents, don't commit to a house.



    When you sell, you need to pay 3% as commission to both the seller and buyer agent. You will break even as soon as the house appreciates 6% plus your closing costs, anything above that would be your profit.

    Now with the market going down, my guess as to when the house appreciates is as good as anybody else�s.

    As far as Rent vs Mortgage goes, I would go with owning a house and paying mortgage than being on rent, I just cannot live in an apartment anymore. Caring for aging parents is our duty and responsibility as much as providing a decent home to our children and giving them a life. If I can strike a balance and fulfill my duties to both, I am happy. Coming to think of it, sometimes I wonder why I did not buy the small house I am in a couple of years ago.



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  • milind70
    07-10 12:55 AM
    I have changed the H1b after my last entry to usa. My I-94 in passport and in the H1b approval notice numbers are not same. Out of all 10 digits only 6th digit is different. I think it is a typo by uscis. What should I do?? The difference is very hard to figure out that I noticed it only when I was filling out I-485 by myself.

    Any suggestions

    You can file Form I 102 with USCIS , if it is the mistake of USCIS there is no charge. If I 94 is mutilated,lost or stolen then u have to pay a fee for it.
    I would suggest take an infopass appointment with local USCIS office and talk to a immgration officer he will be able to help you.




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  • nojoke
    09-26 07:17 PM
    though its very tempting to support obama with all his elequent talk, I think action speaks louder than words. he has absolutely no history of doing anything in the senate, and has not worked in a bi-partisan way with the republicans to pass any thing. do you think all of a sudden as prez he's going to get things done. further his stance on matters changes as the wind blows. meanwhile mccain has a history of making things happen, even sometimes going against his party. Dem will be more interested in helping the illegals become permanent, and not the legals 'coz their sights are on the vote banks. reps in general are more pro-business, and will favor the legal as opposed to illegals. of course there are some who are against.
    someone pointed out the days were better in the 90's...i do agree that was a period of boom in the us economy with the rise of the dot com companies. but towards the end of the 90's, the dot com going bust, the us economy was heading in recession. and adding to that the rise of other economic powers like china, india, russia, the competition grew intense, and started to hurt the US economy much. However to the credit of the repub prez the SU economy came out from the inital recession, and the overall unemployment % was only ~5.4%, the lower in several decades incl the 90's. I think it was only through the right economic and pro-business policies of this admin that helped in this. of course the wars and the housing bubble has brought us to this new economic situations. It would require the next admin to frame policies that would keep US out of next recession.
    but with dems policies of higher taxes on business (of course higher taxes on you and me), and more govt spending using mine and your tax dollars (of course our ss which we might never see) to hand it out to the lazy, and good for nothing people, you'll def see the US economy going into deeper recession. on top of that the universal health care would see us going the way of CA and europe with health care rationing, and long lines.
    I could go on adding the benefits e.g. favorable deals with india the repubs would bring, but I thinks this is good for now.
    so I would suggest stop going with the age old mentality and blindly believing that the dems are best. Start to think rationally.

    How is giving tax break to the business helping us in the time of recession? If your company is not selling products, it will hire more to do what? The tax cut will simply go to executives and there will be layoffs. Trickle down economy is a scam.
    Did you compare Obama's tax plan with McCain's. Go to CNN and you will that you will get more from Obama than from McCain's tax cut. How is universal health care bad? There are 50million without healthcare here. Soon your company will say that it cannot pay your healthcare plans because it is getting costly. The middle men(insurance companies) maybe eating more of your money than the actual health care costs. The long lines are due to less available doctors, not because of universal healthcare.
    "A Commonwealth Fund study of six highly industrialized countries, the U.S., and five nations with national health systems, Britain, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, found waiting times were worse in the U.S. than in all the other countries except Canada. And, most of the Canadian data so widely reported by the U.S. media is out of date, and misleading, according to PNHP and CNA/NNOC."




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  • JazzByTheBay
    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".

    jazz


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.




    NKR
    08-06 04:15 PM
    That PD was for an entirely different skill set and job. I know its the law. I still disagree. Can do that last I knew :-)

    If you go strictly by that, then allocating unused EB1 visa numbers to EB2 is also wrong. EB1 visas are meant for an entirely different skill set and job.

    EB2 guys and EB3 guys are at a disadvantage depending on which way you look at it. I guess capturing previous years� unused visa numbers is the only way to go then�




    krishna.ahd
    08-26 09:19 AM
    What men say and what they actually mean . . .

    • "I'M GOING FISHING" Means: "I'm going to drink myself dangerously stupid, and stand by a stream with a stick in my hand, while the fish swim by in complete safety."
    • "YES, DEAR..." Means: Absolutely nothing. It's a conditioned response.
    • "IT WOULD TAKE TOO LONG TO EXPLAIN" Means: "I have no idea how it works."
    • "TAKE A BREAK HONEY, YOU'RE WORKING TOO HARD". Means: "I can't hear the game over the vacuum cleaner."
    • "THAT'S INTERESTING, DEAR." Means: "Are you still talking?"
    • "I WAS JUST THINKING ABOUT YOU, AND GOT YOU THESE ROSES". Means: "The girl selling them on the corner was a real babe."
    • "WHAT DID I DO THIS TIME?" Means: "What did you catch me at?"
    • "I HEARD YOU." Means: "I haven't the foggiest clue what you just said, and am hoping desperately that I can fake it well enough so that you don't spend the next 3 days yelling at me."
    • "YOU KNOW I COULD NEVER LOVE ANYONE ELSE." Means: "I am used to the way you yell at me, and realize it could be worse."
    • "YOU LOOK TERRIFIC." Means: "Please don't try on one more outfit, I'm starving."
    • "WE SHARE THE HOUSEWORK." Means: "I make the messes, she cleans them up."
    Just want to add one more

    "Thats a good question" - Means i have no clue or have no answer for that question.



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